Texas Polls and the Senate Race

The Texas Senate race this year is a match up between the Republican incumbent, John Cornyn, and State Representative Rick Noriega, a Democrat. In many ways, it is easy for the people of the state to dismiss the race as a foregone conclusion. Such an attitude could be very dangerous for Senator Cornyn. That is why he is spending a lot of time campaigning this election season.

The latest poll, produced by the University of Texas, shows Cornyn with a lead of 13% with a split of 44% to 31%. That seems to be a strong lead until you consider that almost 25% of those surveyed expressed no preference. That large number could significantly sway the election either direction.

The large number of "no preference" voters may be a reflection of the general dissatisfaction with Congress and with government in general. In the same poll, respondents were asked to express whether they thought the country was heading in the right direction, or the wrong direction. Those who thought we were heading in the right direction accounted for 20% of the responses while those who thought we were heading in the wrong direction accounted for 67% of the responses.

Economic perceptions were also assessed in the polling questions. Respondents indicated they thought the country was in worse economic shape by 81% as compared to 2% believing the country was better off. I believe this response is largely shaped by media constantly barraging print and air with stories of how poorly the economy is doing. However, when asked about their personal economic situation, 51% thought their personal situation was the same or better.

The Presidential race is likely to have a strong impact on the Senate race vote. Many down ballot votes will follow the party of the voter's Presidential candidate choice. In the Presidential race, the votes track fairly closely with the Senate race with a 42% to 33% split -- slightly narrower, but strongly in favor of McCain. That leaves 25% who are either undecided are who prefer a minor party candidate.

The number that really stands out to me is the almost 25% who expressed no preference in the Senate and Presidential races. I believe that it is because they see Congress -- and government in general -- as not acting in their best interests. It reflects the growing segment of the population who feel powerless to affect the legislative process.