What would happen if escalating fuel and food costs created widespread unrest in China? The first thought is that the government would crack-down in a very harsh manner to stop any political unrest. A second possible scenario is that their eyes would turn elsewhere -- perhaps to the perceived source of their woes. The United States? No. The Middle East. Oil prices are driving the other problems.
With the taste of capitalistic advances in the economy, the Chinese people will not be satisfied with a heavy-handed state policy to force them to "absorb" fuel price increases without some resistance. The size of the Chinese population is such that unrest could quickly grow to a size that would be difficult to handle by the internal police and military. So, the logical approach for the Chinese government is to attempt to redirect that energy. A destabilized China would be a dangerous thing indeed.
2 comments:
I'm going to have to think about this for a while. I agree that the unrest would be difficult to handle but I'm thinking that the majority of the population is rural. That aspect would effect how they perceive their enemies. I'm not ready to comment yet on how I think that perception might actually be.
Samantha: That is a good point. About 60% of the workers are engaged in agricultural or similar labor. But, when you consider a population density of around 325/square mile, with large areas of eastern China being among the most densely populated in the world, you must almost treat that rural population as you would suburban.
I think the unrest will as usual begin among the student population -- those with the most exposure to western ideas and of prime military age. Those who are most concerned with entering a job market that will be disrupted. Those whose energies most need to be directed into a channel that doesn't threaten internal security. Just thinking....
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